My thoughts are that if you can analyze data from a rolling twelve months, you can begin to understand more of how the market is performing as compared simply looking at sales figures from month to month or a single 12 month glimpse into the past.
Through the end of Q2 of ’09 there were two segments of our market that increased in sales for the current year (thru 6/30/09) when you look at the data on a chart of rolling 12 month sales figures from market to market.
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Oglethorpe County |
|
|
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|
12-Mos thru |
DOM |
Average |
|
Median |
|
# sold |
|
1-Jun-08 |
176 |
$149,611.00 |
|
$143,900.00 |
|
130 |
|
1-Jul-08 |
163 |
$148,092.00 |
|
$143,900.00 |
|
113 |
|
1-Aug-08 |
164 |
$148,076.00 |
|
$141,950.00 |
|
110 |
|
1-Sep-08 |
173 |
$143,643.00 |
|
$141,900.00 |
|
104 |
|
1-Oct-08 |
160 |
$143,068.00 |
|
$141,900.00 |
|
95 |
|
1-Nov-08 |
149 |
$142,820.00 |
$141,900.00 |
|
93 |
|
|
1-Dec-08 |
152 |
$141,339.00 |
$140,700.00 |
83 |
||
|
1-Jan-09 |
158 |
$148,117.00 |
$141,400.00 |
83 |
||
|
1-Feb-09 |
160 |
$144,593.00 |
$138,000.00 |
81 |
||
|
1-Mar-09 |
161 |
$132,423.00 |
$134,950.00 |
80 |
||
|
1-Apr-09 |
174 |
$133,678.00 |
$134,900.00 |
77 |
||
|
1-May-09 |
158 |
$128,868.00 |
$125,875.00 |
78 |
||
|
1-Jun-09 |
166 |
$131,032.00 |
$125,875.00 |
86 |
||
|
1-Jul-09 |
165 |
$129,397.00 |
$129,475.00 |
86 |
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|
South Madison County |
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|
12-Mos thru |
DOM |
Average |
|
Median |
|
# sold |
|
1-Jun-08 |
197 |
$155,128.00 |
$153,675.00 |
167 |
||
|
1-Jul-08 |
199 |
$157,586.00 |
$153,675.00 |
150 |
||
|
1-Aug-08 |
208 |
$154,675.00 |
$149,900.00 |
143 |
||
|
1-Sep-08 |
213 |
$156,009.00 |
$149,900.00 |
137 |
||
|
1-Oct-08 |
210 |
$151,670.00 |
$149,900.00 |
137 |
||
|
1-Nov-08 |
200 |
$149,167.00 |
$149,900.00 |
|
133 |
|
|
1-Dec-08 |
192 |
$147,016.00 |
$148,448.00 |
126 |
||
|
1-Jan-09 |
191 |
$148,782.00 |
$148,895.00 |
121 |
||
|
1-Feb-09 |
195 |
$146,575.00 |
$147,329.00 |
118 |
||
|
1-Mar-09 |
194 |
$142,166.00 |
$141,500.00 |
123 |
||
|
1-Apr-09 |
191 |
$136,838.00 |
$135,000.00 |
115 |
||
|
1-May-09 |
186 |
$133,552.00 |
$131,446.00 |
118 |
||
|
1-Jun-09 |
188 |
$135,804.00 |
$131,446.00 |
110 |
||
|
1-Jul-09 |
185 |
$131,233.00 |
$130,000.00 |
113 |
Starting with Oglethorpe County, GA, this segment of our market seems to be responding most logically to what you would expect from the rules of simple economics. Average and median prices are down from 1-Jun-08 figures, and as expected, Days on Market have decreased from 176 to 165. Numbers of sales which peaked at 130, dropped with each successive new 12 month period from 1-Jun-08 through twelve months ending 1-Apr-09. This was followed, one can assume due to a possible bottom of that market, with three successive upticks in sales from a low of 77 and now two successive months at 86 sales per month.
South Madison County, GA, as defined by the Athens Association of Realtors, has had a couple of upticks in sales on a monthly basis as new rolling 12 month sales periods are created. Like Ogelthorpe, it had an increase in the number of homes sold in the newest year, through 1-Jul-09, with an increase from 110 to 113 units sold. Also like Oglethorpe, Days on Market and prices are down.
Which counties had decreases in sales from in the most recent 12 month period? Oconee, Athens-Clarke, and Jackson where there were 2,067 sales in the 12 months through 1-Jul-08 have only seen 1,325 home sales in the past twelve months through Q2 of ’09. This is a 35 percent decrease in the numbers of sales.
Pricing seems to have maintained in Athens-Clarke as median sales figures have loomed in the $143,000-$149,000 price point without much variance. What is probably not surprising is that Oconee County, the highest price point in our market, has seen a 12 percent decrease in median purchase price from 1-Jul-08 to 1-Jul-09.
What trends do we see from here? Not sure. It all depends on external forces such as the media spin, interest rates, a possible newly expanded home buyer tax credit. We shall see.
If you are a buyer in our market, these are probably the best buying conditions in 30 years! If you would like to search the Athens MLS with MapTracks please take a look at listings in our “Classic City” today! On this web MLS search solution you can search every listing on the Georgia MLS for the Greater Athens area or in your Georgia town!
