According to Georgia MLS, October 20, 2009 we find the current housing supply within a 10 mile perimeter around Athens, GA;
Property Type: Single Family Residences
| Closed Transactions Over: | 12 Months | 6 Months | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Closed Transactions: | 736 | 473 | 205 |
| Average Properties Sold Per Month: | 61.3 | 78.8 | 68.3 |
| Current Number of Actives: | 931 | 931 | 931 |
| Months Supply on Market: | 15.2 | 11.8 | 13.6 |
Property Type: Condos/Townhomes
Report Date: Oct 20, 2009
| Closed Transactions Over: | 12 Months | 6 Months | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Closed Transactions: | 90 | 62 | 29 |
| Average Properties Sold Per Month: | 7.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| Current Number of Actives: | 236 | 236 | 236 |
| Months Supply on Market: | 31.5 | 22.8 | 24.4 |
Property Type: Duplexes
| Closed Transactions Over: | 12 Months | 6 Months | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Closed Transactions: | 15 | 8 | 3 |
| Average Properties Sold Per Month: | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Current Number of Actives: | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Months Supply on Market: | 20.8 | 19.5 | 26.0 |
The market is still overly bloated with inventory. While it appears that SFR (single family residential) is now floating in and around the 12 month range of housing supply, from multi-family to condos/townhomes we have a glut of roughly two (2) years.
With this said, the absorption rate (i.e. the rate of the market to absorb existing housing supply) can decrease rapidly if and when sales pick up. This is a backward looking indicator meaning that we are looking at “past sales” to help us figure out how much housing supply is left on the market. As we go through fall and winter you would expect to see some seasonal slowdown before Spring 2010. Considering 4-6 months of housing supply is deemed a “balanced market” between buyers and sellers, I think it is safe to say that we are still firmly in a buyer’s market. Remember however if you are a buyer that you still need to consider the location of town and price range of home in determining how much inventory and therefore how much motivation might exist in the seller, whose property you desire, at any given time.
For example, in Lane Creek Plantation we find in the last six months an inventory level of 27 months of supply while in Cedar Creek on the east side of Athens we see a 12 month level of housing supply. One neighborhood is in the $350k-$600k range while the other below $200k. One neighborhood is a haven for high LTV (loan to value) loans and first time home buyers while the other is stymied by jumbo loan products that don’t exist or do not have as favorable loan terms as well as “step up” home buyers that have been absent this year for the most part.
For more complete weekly conditions in the Athens market please try Athens Market Snapshots. You can view an example before registering to receive a Market Snapshot at www.AthensHomeTrends.com.
