According to RealtyTrac 1 in every 305 housing units received a foreclosure filing in December 2009 in the State of Georgia.  How does your county stack up?

Jackson

142 foreclosure properties
1 in every 166 housing units

Walton

235 foreclosure properties
1 in every 135 housing units

Oconee

Clarke

101 foreclosure properties
1 in every 494 housing units

Barrow

191 foreclosure properties
1 in every 133 housing units

	Foreclosures Priced from $150k to $300k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $150k to $300k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $150,000 to $300.000’s.

	Foreclosures Priced from $300k to $500k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $300k to $500k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $300,000 to $500.000’s.

If  you are a reader of my blog you will note that I have not submitted a lot of new posts as of late.  It is because I have been more focused on my Trulia blog.   The URL is http://www.trulia.com/blog/hank_bailey and you can find much of the same content you have enjoyed reading here at WordPress on that blog as well.  I am trying to focus as well on neighborhood sales reports showing what recent sales have meant to various communities in our area, what the seller’s who sold those properties paid for their homes, and what current inventory levels are in those communities.  Take a look as I think that a marriage, if you will, between WordPress and Trulia is a good thing!

Market-sensitive pricing can be the key to maximum market exposure and, ultimately, a satisfactory sale.

The existing pool of prospective buyers determines a property’s value, based on:

Factors that have little or no influence on the market value of a house include:

The impact of accurate pricing:

Have sold in the recent past

–This shows us what buyers in this market have actually paid for properties similar to yours.

Are currently on the market

–These are properties that will be competing with yours for the attention of available buyers.

Failed to sell

–Understanding why these properties did not sell can help avoid disappointment in the marketing of your property.

Dangers of Overpricing your Home

•Fewer buyers will be attracted and fewer offered received.

•The property attracts “lookers” and helps competing houses look better by comparison.

•If a property does sell above true market  value, it may not appraise, and the buyers may not be able to secure a loan.

•The property may eventually sell below market value.

According to information published by RealtyTrac, the total number of foreclosures reached 2.8 million last year, which was about a 25 percent increase over the previous year and a more double that of 2007.

Which states had the highest rate of foreclosure?  The typical suspects are mentioned.

1. Nevada
2. Arizona
3. Florida
4. California
5. Utah
6. Idaho
7. Georgia
8. Michigan
9. Illinois
10. Colorado.

According to says RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio,“A massive supply of delinquent loans continues to loom over the housing market, and many of those delinquencies will end up in the foreclosure process in 2010 and beyond as lenders gradually work their way through the backlog.”

Foreclosure Search Links

	Foreclosure Properties $100k-$150k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $100k to $150k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $100,000 to $150.000’s.

	Foreclosures Priced from $150k to $300k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $150k to $300k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $150,000 to $300.000’s.

	Foreclosures Priced from $300k to $500k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $300k to $500k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $300,000 to $500.000’s.

	Foreclosures Priced from $500k to $750k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $500k to $750k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $500,000 to $750.000’s.

According to the Federal Reserve, April 1st will be day one in the new Federal Reserve program in which it will “not” be buying up debt securities anymore.  This should allow the markets to operate on their own as God hath intended. Home Buyers beware however as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren believes mortgage rates will head upwards three-quarters of a percent to about 6 percent!

www.hankbailey.prudentialgeorgia.com

Don’t know if you missed it or not, but Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® in which it stated that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.09 percent for the week ending January 7, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.14 percent.  We are finally seeing these low(er) rates catch up with themselves year over year as last year at this time, the 30-year averaged 5.01 percent.

The 15-year note is still just about as low as ever as this week it averaged 4.50 percent down from last week when it averaged 4.54 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year note averaged 4.62 percent.

“Mortgage rates eased slightly this week after rising consecutively through December,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Current interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages are just about at their annual average for 2009, while ARM rates are considerably below their averages for last year.”

“As the economy strengthens further and the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to raise its overnight target rate, ARM rates will follow suit because they are typically tied to shorter-term interest rates. However, the federal funds futures market does not anticipate any Fed action until the second half of 2010.”

“Approximately 25 percent of real estate practitioners say low appraisals have broken up deals, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.” Headlines today that I don’t agree with entirely.  From my experience working and talking with my fellow real estate professionals I have found in certain markets that this number is much, much higher.  In Athens for example where foreclosure resales only make up 15 percent of housing supply, appraisal issues are not much of a factor or concern.  In Winder, Hoschton, Lawrenceville, Braselton and most of metro Atlanta appraisal issues are tearing deals apart at close to a 35-45 percent pace by one recent poll.

In the past foreclosed properties typically were not included in a comparable sales analysis, yet today they account for about 40 percent of home sales (depending on your market) making it impossible for appraisers to value properties “not” in the foreclosure process or current bank owned properties relisted for sale.

This is compounded by new appraisal guidelines that require appraisers to consider “active listings” in determining “fair market value” to which most people would laugh.  I had this conversation with an appraiser recently.  We had a house that was selling (non-distressed) in Winder that was already priced roughly $5000-$7000 below traditional sold comps.

The appraiser could not understand that this was “not a distressed” situation due to the contract price being so low.  It was seller motivation.  He then beat us up even “lower” because an active listing across the street was “listed” for $5000 below our already low contract price.  This listing across the street was a foreclosure purchased by an investor and he tagged it with an even lower than market price to get it resold.  He could do that because he bought the foreclosure for next to nothing!

The appraiser “had to consider this as much as he would another sold comparable” based upon what the buyer’s lender (on my property) wanted to see in his appraisal of the area. These new appraisal guidelines therefore have the capacity of tearing down prices that much more and blowing contracts.

Additionally, in recent months we have added new banking guidelines that require lenders to order appraisals through appraisal management companies has meant more appraisers are looking at properties without knowledge of the local market are making valuations.

As reported by the NAR, a study of 20 years of home sales by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies shows that homes closer than 100 yards to a foreclosure lose about 1 percent in value at point of sale.  How about multiple foreclosures within 100 yards of the same property? No one did that study.

Foreclosures taking housing prices down further in 2010

Based upon all these reasons, you can see why some researchers are forecasting that home prices will keep falling in 2010.  I have seen reports of predictions of anywhere from a 10 to an 11 percent decline with the NAR predicting an increase in prices by 3 percent in 2010!  Chief NAR economists make the point,  “The headwind we face is rising mortgage interest rates,” says NAR Chief Economist Yun, “but the compensating factors will be the home buyers tax credit in the first half of the year and increased job creation in the second half.”

Okay,  I can buy that a little.  The tax credit will help for about four months.  After that and maybe before that if rates continue to climb it may stymie prices from rising during this time frame, but you might have a larger problem.  “Shadow Inventory” I believe they call it, and yes it is scary.  Shadow inventory is a name for the potential 2 million or more bankowned properties that were taken in foreclosure that have not seen the light of  the resale market yet.  It has been rumored that banks are holding back tons of inventory until the New Year dawns.

Well now it has dawned.  Let’s see what happens.

The hardest part of my job in some markets is to convey to my  Seller client why their home is not getting shown more and why they are not getting any offers.  This is a typical conversation now a days whether the house has been listed with me for 2 months or 2 “weeks,” but as I say it depends on the market.

Winder Georgia for example has been loaded down with foreclosure resales over the past two plus years.  Right now, and according to Trulia there are 845 homes for sale with 409 being foreclosure “resales.”  Roughly 45-50 percent of all homes actively on the market for sale are bank owned!

Compare this to the foreclosure national average on sales last month where foreclosure resales were 31 percent of all foreclosure or Athens where the number is a “tiny” 15 percent by comparison.

So we have a typical Winder neighborhood where absorption rates or monthly housing supply is fairly low by national standards yet the only homes selling in the past six months are all foreclosures.

How to compete?  Not sure you can!  I have said for a while now that if area foreclosures such as in Crystal Meadows are selling for $189,000 and this home was built and sold as a $220k+ build out 3-4 years ago, then how can that home currently listed for $189,000 compete when it “is” what a $189,000 home “should be” without the ravages of a foreclosure market staring us in the face.  In reality, if that 4000 sq foot foreclosure is now worth $189,000 then it can be assumed that the 2000 square foot home is no longer worth $189,000 but something less than that.  I found out today that this is exactly the case.  A fresh closing in the same subdivision as my $189,000 listing took place recently.  This sold home is the same home with the same floor plan as my listing and it sold for….$132,000.

Why did we price it where we did?  Why do any sellers price a home the way they do?  Three reasons really.  One is that sellers of non-distressed property don’t want to hear that their homes are worth at times depending on the market or location up to $50,000 less.  At times it is motivation or the lack thereof to “have to sell.”  Finally and more times than not it is a reason of not being able to sell at a lesser price due to debt on the home and not wanting to go “short” in a sale.

What’s the answer?  Not sure of that either.  Time might be the best ally to a home seller today, if they can wait.

By Sophia Stuart, Research Economist

• Most agents, 81 percent, are paid by the sellers in full, while only a small share of agents, 4 percent, are paid by the buyers.

• Three-quarters of sellers pay the agent’s fees as a percent of the sales price and only 4 percent are paid a flat fee to the agent.

• A majority of the sellers are aware that the agent’s fees are negotiable.

• With repeat business and referrals being the strongest sign of client satisfaction, most sellers, 81 percent, reported that they would recommend their agent or use the agent’s services in the future.

Source: National Association of Realtors 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Copyright National Association of REALTORS®, Reprinted with permission.

www.AthensGAHomesForSale.com

*NOTE* So many times I have blogged about and tried to make sure that Home Buyers, and especially first-time home buyers, understand that normally speaking a Buyer’s Agent gets paid by the Seller.  There is nothing to lose and everything to gain by having your own representation!  You need someone in the middle of a purchase looking out for your interests because the listing agent is only looking out for the Seller!

By T.J. Doyle, Research Marketing and Communications Manager

• There are some socio-demographic differences between buyers who rely on the Internet in their home search and those who do not.

• Since younger home buyers generally make greater use of online resources, the median age of home searchers using the Internet is lower, 37 years of age compared with 55 years of age.

• Also, Internet searchers are more likely to be married couple households and have higher median household incomes. Single home buyers are less likely to search online for a home.

• There also is a significant difference in the length of the search process with Internet users spending twice as much time searching for a home and visiting three times as many homes.

Source:  2009 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Copyright National Association of REALTORS®, Reprinted with permission.

www.AthensGAHomesForSale.com

By Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research

• As the data come in as part of the Realtors® Confidence Index survey we can increasingly see the impact of the first-time home buyer tax credit.

• NAR has tracked first-time buyers as a percentage of total market for a number of years. The number fluctuates, but is generally in the neighborhood of 40 percent, give or take a little.

• We have recently started to collect monthly data. The graph below shows participation by first-time buyers in recent months in the home market.

• From May onwards, with the exception of July, first-time buyers were well in excess of 40 percent of total buyers, finally reaching over 50 percent of a 6.1 million sales market in the October/November time frame in anticipation of the end of the tax credit.

• Previous NAR projections indicated that the tax credit would elicit an additional 350,000-400,000 sales from buyers who would otherwise not have been able to participate in the market. Subsequent data has shown that there was a substantial increase in the market (from 4.5 million annual sales in March ’09 to 6.1 million annual sales in October ‘09) and in first-time buyers (from a traditional 40% to 51% for October ’09).

Copyright National Association of REALTORS®, Reprinted with permission.

www.AthensGAHomesForSale.com

“Interest rates aren’t going up.”  I heard this comment recently. If you are waiting on mortgage rates which have recently floated back up in the low 5’s to head back down to the 4’s again before jumping on that new mortgage loan, don’t!

According to Freddie Mac interest rates are likely to rise to 6 percent by the end of the coming year. This prediction made by Amy Cutts who is a chief economist at Freddie Mac.

Why?  For starters, we are about to see an end of the Federal Reserve program in which they have been buying mortgage-backed securities over this past year.  This by itself will drive rates higher because private investors will demand more yield on their investment than does the Fed.

“Extraordinary resources have been put into keeping the rates down and supporting the mortgage markets and it’s hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are,” Crews Cutts said. “Anything we get at or below 5 percent is a gift at this point.”

Over the Christmas Holidays I didn’t find any time to blog.  One must have his priorities you know and shopping for the kids, eating, showing property, eating, and putting in Buyer offers on foreclosures consumed me.

While I was away from my blog a report on November Existing-home sales came out.  It stated that existing-home sales rose again in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, and condominiums rose almost 7.5 percent from October figures, and are roughly 45 percent higher than in November 2008. This month’s sales are at the highest levels since February 2007.

“This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” said a notable NAR economist. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder states,“Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

According to NAR raw data, housing inventory at the end of November declined by roughly 1.5 percent on existing homes marketed for sale, which represents a 6.5-month housing inventory or supply, down from a 7 month supply in October.  This is as low as nationwide inventory has been since April 2006 when it was at 6.1-months.

The NAR went on to state that for the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price points from a year ago. Prior to October of this year the only gains from month to month were in lower price ranges.

Distressed properties, short sales, foreclosures, REO’s, government sales, accounted for one-third of all property sales in November nationally.  This heavy emphasis on discounted properties in distress has a continual downward effect that distorts median prices because they generally sell at a discount of 5 percent or more on average as compared to traditional home sales in the same area.

Overall this is more good news for housing.  Remember however that real estate is local.  In some areas I work I have found distressed home sales to be as low as 10 percent of all housing sales while in others I have seen figures hit 48 percent in a given month.  This along with local area inventory or housing supply can have a substantial impact on Seller willingness to negotiate so these figures are good to know!

www.AthensGAHomesForSale.com

Property owners with mortgages in excess of $1 million are getting hit pretty hard now-a-days.

According to research firm First American CoreLogic, “More than 12 percent of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more past due in September, compared to 6.3 percent of loans less than $250,000 and 7.4 percent of all U.S. mortgages.”

“There is no refinance market for you if you are underwater and outside the Fannie and Freddie framework,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage data firm HSH Associate.

For Jumbo Foreclosures in Georgia;

	Foreclosures Priced from $300k to $500k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $300k to $500k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $300,000 to $500.000’s.

	Foreclosures Priced from $500k to $750k
	Foreclosures, homes in North Georgia price range $500k to $750k, Foreclosures, bank owned, short sales in North Georgia, Buford, Braselton, Dacula, Hoschton, Athens, Winder, Lawrenceville, Statham, Monroe, Watkinsville, Bogart, Bishop, Winterville, Jefferson, Nicholson. Price range $500,000 to $750.000’s.

The Daily Beast has named Athens one of the Top Smartest College Towns in the United States in a recent column posted on December 13, 2009.  What’s more news was that right after Washington and Lee and George Washington University we find the University of Georgia named as a Top 15 Hottest Schools in the universe!

www.AthensGAHomesForSale.com